Tawaazon
8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53
Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA56 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | BHA57 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA58 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA60 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | BHA60 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA60 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/06/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |