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Bajan Bandit

6yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 59

Newcastle · Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap · 1m 5y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dropped in grade and placed for a third start running when second of 11 at Lingfield (1m) last month, finishing well but no match for a lightly-raced improver. However, found run of good form coming to a halt at Southwell 11 days later.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 68 par28/025OR 685 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m5y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 64 par27/035OR 646 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m75y Goo 136 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 62 par4 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f96y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 60 par4/074OR 605 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 6f212y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 60 par7/085OR 606 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m13y Std 130 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 par31/086OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell612th12th0
2026-08-20Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Haydock53rd2nd+1
2026-07-07Wolverhampton52nd1st+1
2026-07-04Beverley45th3rd+2
2026-06-25Nottingham68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0225/067/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
11/03/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
27/03/20266th13/266%38%-0.28
25/06/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
04/07/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
07/07/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
07/08/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
20/08/20262nd4/179%90%+0.11
31/08/202612th13/266%15%-0.50