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7

Positive Thoughts

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 55

Newcastle · Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap · 1m 5y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked less than straightforward when sixth of 8 in handicap at Musselburgh (9f, good to firm, 7/1) 25 days ago, looking ungainly on home turn and hanging right 1f out. One to treat with caution.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 07/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS7/1052 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f15y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Southwell 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 68 par25/045OR 686 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f173y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 62 par8/065OR 626 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 1m68y Goo 131 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/076OR 606 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m2f Goo 128 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m208y Gd 127 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 57 par25/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Musselburgh66th6th0
2026-08-10Ayr68th8th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-07-11Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-06-08Carlisle55th4th+1
2026-05-26Redcar69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1026/0521/0725/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength10%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/10/20252nd9/276%92%+0.15
05/11/20254th11/486%67%-0.19
25/04/20266th9/276%58%-0.18
26/05/20269th4/179%33%-0.46
08/06/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
11/07/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
21/07/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
10/08/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
25/08/20266th7/163%29%-0.35