5
Triggerman
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Newcastle · Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap · 1m 5y
#8
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 18/12/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 07/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |