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8

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3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 54

Newcastle · Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap · 1m 5y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved better than ever down in grade on first run since leaving Noel Wilson when winning 9-runner handicap over C&D 17 days ago, responding well to front-running tactics. Nudged up 3 lb and holds solid claims if in the same form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 61 · 5f160y Goo 131 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 61 par30/096OR 616 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m GS 129 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f219y GF 128 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 57 par30/046OR 576 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 54 · 7f15y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 54 par5/065OR 546 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m Sft 123 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 51 · 7f96y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 51 par4/076OR 515 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f75y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 51 par2/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle61st1st0
2026-07-28Beverley57th6th+1
2026-07-04Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-06-19Ayr65th5th0
2026-06-05Musselburgh510th9th+1
2026-05-18Redcar64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0918/054/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20259th16/583%33%-0.50
16/04/202610th28/10%10%+0.10
30/04/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
18/05/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
05/06/202610th50/10%0%0.00
19/06/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
04/07/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
28/07/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
02/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53