2
Ice Sovereigns
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 84
Newmarket · Turners Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 10th | 6th | +4 |
| 2025-09-01 | Carlisle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/04/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |