9
Stormy Music
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 72
Newmarket · Turners Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |