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12

Golden Strike

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73

Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a second win of the season at York (7f) in May and in good nick since, third of 10 in handicap at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) 31 days ago. Ought to be thereabouts again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 69 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 69 par22/015OR 695 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 70 par20/025OR 705 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 72 · 7f6y GS 127 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 72 par29/034OR 724 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 72 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 75 · 7f192y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par27/063OR 754 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 6f195y Goo 129 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 74 par19/084OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle43rd3rd0
2026-07-24York45th5th0
2026-06-27York37th6th+1
2026-05-23York41st1st0
2026-03-29Doncaster412th12th0
2026-03-06Newcastle52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/016/0327/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
06/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/02/20262nd7/282%91%+0.09
06/03/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
29/03/202612th7/282%27%-0.55
23/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
27/06/20267th9/276%54%-0.22
24/07/20265th11/271%76%+0.05
19/08/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04