8
Hardy's Hero
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 80
Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 15-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |