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10

Kiniro

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76

Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped better than results on his first few starts for the yard before a good third at Kempton (7f) in August. Raced too freely from a wide draw when seventh over that same C&D last time and not ruled out here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 27/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 125 · beat its mark27/08/2025 · OR 75 par27/084OR 755 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 6f16y Std 136 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 75 par14/105OR 754 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 80 · 6f17y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par23/054OR 804 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f GS 129 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f12y GF 135 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 79 par27/064OR 794 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 78 · 7f Sta 128 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 77 · 7f Sta 127 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 77 par4/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Kempton47th7th0
2026-08-12Kempton43rd3rd0
2026-06-27Windsor48th8th0
2026-06-11Newbury42nd2nd0
2026-05-23York411th11th0
2026-05-08Chester48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/088/0527/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/08/20253rd16/583%80%-0.03
27/09/20253rd3/184%78%-0.06
14/10/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
08/05/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
23/05/202611th33/10%47%+0.47
11/06/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
27/06/20268th15/261%22%-0.38
12/08/20263rd13/266%80%+0.14
04/09/20267th16/116%50%+0.34