13
Lady Mariko
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 73
Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 18th | 16th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Yarmouth | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 52% | +0.26 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 62% | +0.19 |
| 17/06/2026 | 18th | 80/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |