11
Lunario
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73
Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 01/06/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |