3
Rogue Allegiance
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Newmarket · Turners Handicap · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |