6
Buccabay
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 78
Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |