8
Explosive Finnish
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 78
Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |