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3

Fifty Nifty

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 81

Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going sort who got off the mark for the yard over 6f on July course here in August. Ran a cracker from 6 lb out of the handicap when second of 13 at Ascot (6f, good to firm) 2 weeks ago. A likely player back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f20y Std 130 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 80 par22/124OR 804 @ Yarmouth 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f3y Goo 133 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 76 par19/064OR 765 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 74 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 72 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par27/075OR 724 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 6f GF 132 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 70 · 6f GF 145 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 70 par14/085OR 704 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 75 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 74 par5/092OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot22nd0th+2
2026-08-22Newmarket45th5th0
2026-08-14Newmarket53rd4th−1
2026-08-07Newmarket41st1st0
2026-07-27Southwell511th12th−1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton55th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1217/0714/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20254th6/492%50%-0.42
28/05/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
19/06/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
17/07/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
27/07/202611th8/158%9%-0.49
07/08/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
14/08/20263rd9/488%82%-0.06
22/08/20265th13/266%67%+0.01
05/09/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55