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5

Northcliff

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 80

Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended time with Thomas Faulkner with success at Chepstow (7f) in May. In excellent form after for Ross Burdon, 9 lb out of the handicap when third of 13 at Ascot (6f, good to firm) 2 weeks ago. Likely to go well again for another new yard with Billy Loughnane up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 67 par11/045OR 676 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 64 · 7f16y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 67 par19/065OR 675 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 6f12y GF 134 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 66 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 66 par11/074OR 666 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 67 par14/085OR 675 @ Goodwood 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 70 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 71 par5/092OR 71projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot23rd1st+2
2026-08-28Goodwood52nd3rd−1
2026-08-14Newmarket52nd3rd−1
2026-08-01Thirsk62nd4th−2
2026-07-11Ascot417th17th0
2026-06-29Windsor56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0429/0614/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20268th17/255%0%-0.55
29/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
19/06/20264th11/271%80%+0.09
29/06/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
11/07/202617th11/271%0%-0.71
01/08/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
14/08/20262nd15/261%91%+0.30
28/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
05/09/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41