2
Nostrum
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 82
Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 19th | 50/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 10/10/2025 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 19% | -0.23 |
| 09/05/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |