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9

Sir Alfie

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72

Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful winner over 5f/6f in Ireland last year but hasn't really threatened in handicaps for current yard, just sixth of 8 at Lingfield (6f, all-weather) last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 92 · 6f Yie 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 92 par22/091OR 921 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 92 · 5f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 90 · 6f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 90 par16/042OR 902 @ Sandown 24/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 90 · 5f10y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 87 · 5f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 87 par15/053OR 874 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 134 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 6f12y Goo 134 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 80 par13/074OR 804 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 77 · 6f GF 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f1y Std 136 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par15/085OR 75projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Lingfield56th7th−1
2026-07-25Lingfield44th4th0
2026-07-13Windsor49th9th0
2026-06-10Kempton48th8th0
2026-05-15York310th9th+1
2026-04-24Sandown29th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0924/0413/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
10/10/202512th66/10%0%0.00
16/04/20268th100/10%42%+0.42
24/04/20269th50/10%0%0.00
15/05/202610th66/10%44%+0.44
10/06/20268th50/10%0%0.00
13/07/20269th40/10%27%+0.27
25/07/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
15/08/20266th40/10%29%+0.29