Alaminos
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 82
Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 21th | 19th | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 85/40 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 06/05/2026 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 45% | -0.45 |
| 13/06/2026 | 21st | 40/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |