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Sierra Sands

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 83

Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 6f/7f handicaps on July course here this summer. Posted a good fourth of 7 on his all-weather debut at Kempton (7f) 17 days ago. Needs considering eased 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/1025 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 1334 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 79 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 79 par14/044OR 794 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 79 · 7f GF 134 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f6y Goo 134 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 79 par27/054OR 794 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 7f GF 137 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 82 par10/074OR 824 @ Newmarket 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 7f GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 134 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 84 par2/094OR 84projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Kempton44th4th0
2026-08-01Newmarket44th4th0
2026-07-10Newmarket41st1st0
2026-06-25Newmarket41st1st0
2026-05-27Hamilton43rd3rd0
2026-05-02Newmarket410th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/102/0510/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength74%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20255th7/282%0%-0.82
18/10/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
14/04/20264th11/271%75%+0.04
02/05/202610th9/276%10%-0.66
27/05/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
25/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
10/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
01/08/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
02/09/20264th15/261%50%-0.11