5
Waistcoat
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 80
Newmarket · Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kempton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 22/10/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 10/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/01/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |