5
Appier
7yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 78
Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 03/04/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 8% | -0.45 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |