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Gooloogong

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 89

Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back in fine form this year and emphatically landed a gamble in 9-runner handicap at Goodwood (1¾m, heavy) 3 weeks ago. Hiked up 11 lb here but still respected over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 70 · 1m7f218y Sta 134 · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 70 par28/055OR 704 @ Kempton 02/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 114 · 2m Goo 162 · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 114 par2 @ Sandown 07/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 124 · 1m7f216y Sft 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 124 par7/032OR 1242 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 122 · 2m103y Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 122 par5 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 1m7f218y Sta 138 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 par4/055OR 704 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 133 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 130 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 75 par8/074OR 752 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 74 · 2m4f137y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 1m6f Sft 133 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 78 par29/084OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Goodwood41st2nd−1
2026-07-31Goodwood23rd2nd+1
2026-07-08Kempton46th7th−1
2026-05-27Kempton44th5th−1
2026-05-04Kempton51st3rd−2
2026-04-10Aintree215th14th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0510/048/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength99%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20253rd4/179%80%+0.01
02/02/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
07/03/202611th28/10%41%+0.41
10/04/202615th28/10%30%+0.30
04/05/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
27/05/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
08/07/20266th5/287%38%-0.49
31/07/20263rd100/10%86%+0.86
29/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18