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In The Breeze

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 93

Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Notched a second win of 2026 at Goodwood (2m) in June and posted another good effort when a clear second of 10 in handicap at Haydock (1¾m, soft) 2 weeks ago. Big shout nudged up 1 lb with this longer trip also a likely plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 78 · 1m4f5y GS 140 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 78 par18/094OR 782 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m6f Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m6f Goo 136 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 83 par17/103OR 834 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 82 · 2m102y Std 140 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 82 par3 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 81 · 1m4f8y Gd 128 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 81 par10/043OR 813 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 88 · 1m3f211y Goo 129 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 2m Sft 134 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 87 par7/063OR 872 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 93 · 2m56y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 92 · 1m6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 par5/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock22nd1st+1
2026-08-19York213th12th+1
2026-06-07Goodwood31st1st0
2026-05-09Ascot311th11th0
2026-04-10Thirsk31st1st0
2025-11-20Southwell47th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0920/117/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
02/10/20254th9/153%50%-0.03
17/10/20254th16/116%57%+0.41
20/11/20257th40/10%33%+0.33
10/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
09/05/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
07/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
19/08/202613th28/10%20%+0.20
05/09/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52