Premiere Ligne
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 75
Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Newmarket | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 02/08/2024 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 94% | +0.89 |
| 21/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 12/10/2024 | 16th | 9/1 | 53% | 35% | -0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |