7
Rogue Empire
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |