3
Squire Danagher
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 89
Newmarket · Turners Cesarewitch Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Wincanton | 5 | −2 | ||
| 2025-09-26 | Worcester | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2025-07-08 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 20/09/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/10/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 30% | -0.52 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 08/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |