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4

Humphrey

3yo Colt · 9-4

Newmarket · Turners Of Soham Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Pinatubo colt. Closely related to smart 11f winner Lionel and half-brother to very smart 11f-1¾m winner Gregory. Hasn't convinced with his head carriage when a beaten favourite on both of his starts, but the 3 horses that finished ahead of him are all at least useful. This looks easier.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f209y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS13/0623 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 13027/073projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Southwell33rd3rd0
2026-06-13Sandown22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20262nd8/1397%80%-0.17
27/07/20263rd5/493%85%-0.09