12
Francesi
7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 66
Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 24/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |