6
Kodi Fire
4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 75
Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |