11
Pride Of Nepal
8yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 67
Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 17/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |