13
Prodigal Son
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 63
Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength3%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |