14
Star Start
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 60
Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |