IvyArcIvyArc
7

Sudbury Hill

3yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 80

Newmarket · Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire Handicap · 1m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved model for Harry Derham this year, adding to his hurdles win when showing a good attitude in this headgear at Salisbury. Good second there next time before struggling on soft ground in a valuable seller at Goodwood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 76 par20/034OR 765 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m2f1y GF 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m3f188y Gd 133 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 78 par14/054OR 784 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 1524 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 15623/0644 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 1614 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 77 · 1m1f201y Goo 131 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par25/074OR 774 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 80 · 1m1f201y Goo 132 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m3f44y Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 80 par30/083OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood35th4th+1
2026-08-13Salisbury42nd2nd0
2026-07-25Salisbury41st1st0
2026-06-29Stratford44th4th0
2026-06-23Newton Abbot41st1st0
2026-06-06Hexham42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/036/0625/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
30/04/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
14/05/202612th15/261%15%-0.45
06/06/20262nd10/1195%80%-0.15
23/06/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
29/06/20264th5/696%25%-0.71
25/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
13/08/20262nd8/158%67%+0.09
30/08/20265th13/266%20%-0.46