3
Lautrec Carisaie
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Bar Pmu L'etoile Craon - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Les Sables | 6 | −2 | ||
| 2026-07-23 | Pornichet | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cherbourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cholet | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-14 | Nantes | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.26 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |