14
Lucifer Du Pont
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Bar Pmu L'etoile Craon - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Enghien | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Enghien | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Chartres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 03/03/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/03/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |