13
Lucky De Calvi
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Bar Pmu L'etoile Craon - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Pornichet | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Le Mans | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Laval | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-21 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 23/06/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |