14
Hudson Baie
9yo Mare · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Presse Ocean - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Cabourg | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Pornichet | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Pornichet | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cholet | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Vincennes | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 21/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/02/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/05/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 09/06/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/08/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |