12
Justice Brickell
7yo Mare · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Presse Ocean - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Nantes | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Laval | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Vincennes | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 58% | -0.15 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 01/12/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/03/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |