15
Justicia Smart
7yo Mare · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Presse Ocean - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#11
Rank
Odds
70/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Pontchateau | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Pontchateau | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cordemais | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Vincennes | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 8/13 | 97% | 71% | -0.25 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 93% | +0.88 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/01/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 76% | +0.50 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |