15
Kerosen Du Gers
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Conseil Regional Pays De La Loire - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-13 | Argentan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Vire | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Nantes | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Vincennes | 4 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 24/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 93% | -0.03 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 94% | +0.07 |
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |