11
Histoire De Lierre
9yo Mare · 10-3
Pornichet · Prix Hotel Sud Bretagne Pornichet - Monte · 1m 5f 120y
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Pornichet | 6 | −1 | ||
| 2026-08-04 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Pontchateau | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Nantes | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 16/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |