13
Java De Boitron
7yo Mare · 10-3
Pornichet · Prix Hotel Sud Bretagne Pornichet - Monte · 1m 5f 120y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Pornichet | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Enghien | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chartres | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Nantes | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chartres | 6 | −1 | ||
| 2026-04-12 | Pontchateau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/03/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |