13
Kerro De Houelle
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Pornichet · Prix Du Pmu Le Ralli Pornichet - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#3
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-19 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Vincennes | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 15-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 06/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 42% | -0.32 |
| 19/01/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |