3
Crime Scene
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 54
Remington Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Lone Star | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |