4
Over Reacted
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 57
Remington Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Remington Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lone Star | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -15.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |