1
Dizavril Pelem
4yo Filly · 11-2
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Race And Care Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength98%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +5.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | 3 | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |