8
Moustach Rochelais
4yo Gelding · 10-7
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Race And Care Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼6
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: +5.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Pau | 2 | 5th | -2th | +6 |
| 2026-01-16 | Pau | 3 | +5 | ||
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 3-8 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |