5
Match Ball
4yo Filly · 9-4
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix De La Roche Aux Fees Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saint-Malo | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Pau | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-11 | Pau | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |